Geoeconomic Conflict Tops the Risk List
The World Economic Forum (WEF) has identified rising economic confrontation between major powers as the leading threat to global stability in 2026. In its Global Risks Report, released ahead of next week’s Davos meeting, the WEF highlights “geoeconomic confrontation” — including sanctions, tariffs, and trade restrictions — as more pressing than misinformation, societal polarisation, extreme weather, or armed conflict.
The findings are based on surveys of over 1,300 leaders from business, government, academia, and civil society. Half of respondents expect the world to face turbulence in the next two years, up sharply from 36% in last year’s report, while only 9% anticipate stability. Looking further ahead, most experts foresee prolonged global instability. WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi described the report as an early warning system, emphasizing that these risks, while serious, are not inevitable if nations work together.
Economic and Geopolitical Pressures Mount
Geoeconomic confrontation ranked first for both likelihood and severity over the next two years, climbing eight spots from last year. Experts warn that rising tensions threaten supply chains, global trade, and the international cooperation needed to manage economic shocks.
The report cites US trade policies, including sweeping tariffs on imports from many countries, as an example of how economic measures can ripple across the world, straining businesses and consumers alike. Respondents also expect a “multipolar or fragmented” global order in the coming decade, reflecting increasing geopolitical rivalries. Other economic risks, including potential downturns, inflation, mounting debt, and asset bubbles, have all climbed in the short-term rankings, raising concerns about future market volatility.
Technology, Society, and Environment in Focus
Beyond economics, misinformation and disinformation remain top concerns, while cyber insecurity ranks sixth. Worries about artificial intelligence jumped sharply in the long-term outlook, reflecting fears over its social, economic, and security impacts. Societal polarisation and inequality continue to pose significant risks, with inequality also emerging as the most interconnected threat.
Environmental challenges, while lower in the short-term ranking, dominate the decade-long outlook. Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical changes to Earth systems are expected to be the most severe threats over the next ten years, with three-quarters of respondents predicting turbulent environmental conditions.
Zahidi emphasized that the report underscores the urgent need for international cooperation. “From geopolitical tensions to rapid technological change and climate instability, these challenges highlight the shared responsibility we have to shape the future,” she said.
