A Fresh Approach to Deterrence
President Emmanuel Macron is preparing to present a new vision for France’s nuclear capabilities in Europe, signaling a willingness to involve other EU nations more directly. His speech, scheduled from the Île Longue peninsula — home to France’s four nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines — will mark the first detailed address on nuclear deterrence since 2020. Macron is expected to emphasize that this expansion would complement, not compete with, the US nuclear umbrella.
Initially proposed three years ago, Macron’s idea of sharing nuclear exercises with European partners went largely unnoticed. However, recent geopolitical shifts have renewed interest across the continent. Macron confirmed earlier this month at the Munich Security Conference that he has held “strategic dialogue” with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and other EU leaders on coordinating national doctrines.
Europe’s Shifting Strategic Landscape
Interest in France’s nuclear offer has grown amid rising global tensions. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine exposed Europe’s defence vulnerabilities, while political uncertainty in Washington under Donald Trump has fueled doubts about the US commitment to European security.
Trump’s recent threats toward Denmark over Greenland, alongside plans for a partial US troop withdrawal from Europe, have heightened concerns. Additionally, Russia’s hypersonic missile development, China’s expanding arsenal, and uncertainties over Iran have made European leaders more receptive to new security arrangements. Officials close to Macron stress that this initiative is intended to reinforce, not replace, NATO protections.
France’s Nuclear Policy and Cooperation
France’s approach follows the principle of “strict sufficiency,” maintaining roughly 300 nuclear warheads — enough to deliver unacceptable damage if required, but far below the thousands held by the US and Russia. French sources emphasize that Paris does not seek an arms race, and the focus remains on deterrence rather than escalation.
Meanwhile, France and the UK, Europe’s other nuclear power, have strengthened collaboration through the Northwood Declaration, creating a Nuclear Steering Group and coordinating joint exercises. Macron’s announcement is likely to further define France’s role as a stabilizing force in European nuclear security while navigating a complex and increasingly volatile global landscape.
